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| Friday Sep 15, 2006
No chance for a hike on WednesdayTaipan Group's Dynamic Market AlertBy J. Christoph Amberger-- No chance for a hike on Wednesday ---------------------------- BOTTARELLI RESEARCH MEMBER MAKES $51,531 IN ONE WEEK! “Dear Bryan, (I made) $51,531. Thank you my friend.” - Charter Member D.R. With notes like this, you can clearly see why you should become a Click here to see if this elite new trading service is right for you. --------------------------
No chance for a hike on Wednesdayby J. Christoph Amberger Consumer prices rose just 0.2% in August. The core rate, too, came in at just 0.2%: Even the short-term numbers that the talking heads like to latch onto would now support that the Fed is going to remain firmly seated on its hands on September 20. For the 12 months ending August 31, core consumer prices were up 2.8%. Overall consumer prices rose 3.8% in the dame period. For September the numbers should come in even lower, as lower energy prices and a drop in housing will probably push overall consumer prices back. Which now opens a clearer perspective on the months ahead: With oil falling, gold tumbling, housing tottering and commodities shaking, the U.S. stock market is set to profit from freed-up speculative liquidity.
-- WaveStrength guru Adam Lass, had this to say about gold’s recent activity: “Gold breaks the model, but stays true to form: Using the StreetTracks gold fund (GLD) as a proxy, it’s easy to see that the precious metal’s skyrocket has ended… for now. “The thing to keep in mind here is that gold is now yoked to oil like two hobbling friends in a three-legged sack race. So the question becomes: Is oil done? And the answer is no. “Oil is in a very predictable trough between seasons, and even that trough is still substantially higher than any commodities bear should find overly comforting. Look for both oil and gold to stay down until the thermostats in the Northern Hemisphere flip over to ‘H.’ “Once the lights start going on around 4 p.m. and quilts come out of cedar chests, both oil and gold will likely return to within a few percentage points of their recent highs. “Indeed, our group has recommended buying Chevron (CVX: NYSE) at $60 via our outstanding calls.”
Calling the Short-Term Bottom in Oilby Christian DeHaemer Oil has dropped $15 in a month. Gas prices are looking reasonable and I’m taking the bright yellow Hummer out of storage. But readers want to know where oil will go from here. Here’s what we think we know from the futures markets: Last month oil climbed to $78 based on BP’s reduction in oil production from Alaska’s Prudhoe Bay, Nigerian strikes and the advent of hurricane season among other things. However, prices dropped coming into September due to a letup of the Hezbollah-Israel conflict, the terror premium, no hurricanes, an end to the Nigerian strike as well as the end to the driving season in North America. Yesterday, oil hit $63 and change. A $15 drop in a month. The average retail price of regular gasoline fell from $3.04 per gallon on August 7, 2006, to $2.62 per gallon on September 11, 2006. We are now hearing the “experts” say it will hit $2 by next spring. Thus the sudden and dramatic fall in the price of oil. In 2007, there are several new fields coming on line including Russia’s Sakhalin I Project and the United Kingdom’s Buzzard field. There will also be growth in the Caspian Region, Africa and Brazil. -- The Oil Bears Are on the Prowl: Right now there is no bullish story on oil. The terror premium is gone. There are no hurricanes, supply is climbing, demand is falling (and Wall Street is fretting about a slowdown of the U.S. economy due to inflation fears), a housing bubble popping and who knows what else. I would submit that the time to buy an asset is when prices are low and sell when they are high… especially when you have a catalyst for asset appreciation. Yesterday, as we were working high atop the battlements of the Taipan castle in Mt. Vernon, Baltimore, I was pulled into a conversation with the very smart and talented duo of Christoph Amberger and Todd Schoenberger on the geopolitical consequences of the Iran nuclear situation. Christoph’s point was that Iran’s President Ahmadinejad wants a nuclear threat aimed at the United States, while he is currently in Venezuela talking with Hugo Caves. He is a frequent guest of Dictator Kim in North Korea and Fidel Castro. Christoph thinks that this is the beginning of Cuban Missile Crisis II. Ahmadinejad supplies petrodollars to Kim in exchange for a missile that can reach from either Havana or Caracas to a major U.S. city such as Washington, D.C., New York or Miami. Todd believes that this crisis will escalate to the point of U.N. sanctions or an embargo on Iran and a subsequent spike of the global price of crude. One must also keep in mind the Middle East two-step where the leader du jour speaks of destroying the great Satan in Farsi/Arabic to his home crowd, while stalling, talking peace and waiting for advantages on the world stage. Thus you see Ahmadinejad on a schmooze campaign before he arrives in New York and appears before the United Nations next month. His goal is to stall the United Nations -- not hard to do -- talk the good talk to the Europeans and New York neocoms, enrich uranium and wait until Bush is out of office and the next Jimmy Carter shows up. But this weekend, Iran’s top dog will be in Cuba with Castro, Hugo Chavez and U.N. Secretary General Koffi Annan for the Nonaligned Movement meeting. It has been reported today that Koffi and Fidel had a nice talk in Castro’s hospital room. I cannot believe that these four U.S.-bashers won’t produce some intercontinental ballistic, missile-rattling propaganda or induce the current U.S. administration to rattle some stealth bombers of their own -- with the concurrent “nuke Islamabad” statement from Ann Coulter and the subsequent spike in terror premium in the crude futures market. The United Nations is in New York after all. Ahmadinejad wants to speak on Tuesday, September 19, coming directly from Havana. Look for a $5 pop to $68 in a week from Monday.
Stealth Bull Marketsby Steven Lord Over the past eight weeks, there have been a number of these stealth bull markets unfolding, and the virtual silence about them in the mainstream investment world makes me think they have further to go. One of them has occurred in the bond market, which has gone from 5.2% to under 4.8% in 10-year yields since last spring, and another in large-cap stocks. You’d never know it from reading the paper, but we’re within one good triple-point day of making a new high on the Dow. Why have these markets begun discounting better times ahead? Because global economic growth is slowing before inflation has had a chance to really settle in. And while CPI numbers could still prove unsettling, the consumer spending slowdown we’ve written about should slowly take place over the next few quarters and join falling oil and housing prices in further pressuring inflation downwards. And as usual, these stealth bull markets began during a period where things seemed bleakest: Fed rate hikes, an imploding housing market, record oil, geopolitical tension, etc. In essence, this is the “Wall of Worry” effect, whereby bull markets are often germinated right when things seem darkest and the headlines make you think anyone buying stock should have their head examined. But that is Wall Street -- you can’t take full advantage of bull markets by being late to the party. You have to anticipate where the money will be moving several months from now; chasing where it is already only makes you an adherent to the greater fool theory. So as I scan the investment landscape for where money will be flowing six months or a year down the road, one sector pops up: housing. I know it is heretical to say so, but the rapid drop in housing stocks (TOL, LEN, KBH, etc.) and home-improvement retailers like Home Depot is more than likely setting up for a strong rally in the first half of next year. It is too soon to buy them now -- you have to wait for the dust to settle and there is still a lot of air under some of these companies -- but the housing stocks may just be the next stealth bull market to come around, especially if the Fed begins cutting rates by the second quarter of 2007. Like we said over the summer upon predicting a bond-market rally, you read it here first. -------------------------- Earnings Announcements for Monday, September 18, 2006 Sino Land Company Ltd and Somanetics Corporation are releasing earnings. Brought to you by your FREE American Capitalist. Sign up here:
Unlock Dates for September 2006 9/20/06 – Clayton Holdings Inc is unlocking 7.5 million shares. Keep an eye on Tim Hortons Inc. and Himax Technologies for significant sell-offs. You may want to short shares or buy puts on these two positions. Brought to you by Extreme Volatility Speculator -------------------------- |
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