Monday Sep 25, 2006

A terrible month for investors?

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A terrible month for investors?

by J. Christoph Amberger

September is supposed to be a terrible month for investors. Don’t ask me why. I only can guess at the underlying causes. It could be that summer is over; the kids are back in school and their disgruntled return to books and teachers, exhorting them to “Dream Big!” (written in Sharpie marker on construction paper posters), is radiating back into the mood of investors.

Maybe it’s just the summer vacation bills hitting. Or the exact point between vacation spending grinding to a standstill (how about those $7 Boardwalk French fries!) and holiday spending? The time when you save money on not cooling your home and you haven’t had to start the furnace yet? The realization that the ambitious goals for the calendar year will require a miracle to pull off in just three remaining months?

Or could it just be that all the real estate agents are shrink-wrapping their pants suits, as few people, even in a good year, start selling or buying homes once school has started?

Whatever the reason may be, this September is shaping up to be not all that bad for equity investors. The Dow has been able to protract its extended period of limbo yet another month, during which it came perilously close to breaking its all-time record highs. Mutual fund, brokerage and retirement plan statements are actually showing modest gains.

-- The only people who have reason to look at September 2006 as a downright unpleasant month are those who have been bullish on gold, oil and real estate.

Despite a 10% increase in Indian gold buying, gold is still right where it plunged earlier this month, around $580 a month. It’s a price level that is neither fish nor fowl: I had occasion to speak to (and about) several gold bugs in France last week. And while they’re still expecting to double and triple their money over current prices, they’re not buying. Not a single ounce. Not as long as gold is above $500.

(In that regard, they are completely different from their Internet bubble cousins back in the 1990s. Whenever Internet stock dropped, those guys yelled, “accumulate!”)

-- Real estate flippers aren’t all that fond of September, either. For the first time since 1995, the prices of existing homes fell last month, by 1.7%, as overall sales declined to the lowest level since early 2004. The median resale price declined to $225,000 last month from $228,000 in the same month a year ago.

Real estate inventories are the highest in more than 13 years, and still keep rising. There are now 3.918 million houses on the market -- enough to last 7.5 months in a moving market.

What are all those real estate newbies going to do, having let Rich Dad, Poor Dad talk them into plowing their spare cash into fixer-uppers at the outskirts of town?

-- And then there’s oil. Here, at least, there’s some seasonal relief in sight: I look around the office and already have noticed a number of Freezing Females looking at the thermostat. That spells a pick-up in heating oil demand in about four or six weeks.

Unless, of course, the weather prophets and “scientific consensors” are as accurate about the coming winter as they were about the threat level of the hurricane season earlier this year.

What’s an investor to do?

I’ll tell you: Use the lull to buy some great energy stocks on the cheap. Like Apache Corporation (APA-NYSE), which has seen a considerable price increase every last quarter of the calendar year for the last four or five years straight.

Earnings Announcements for Tuesday, September 26, 2006

Aehr Test Systems, Analogic Corporation, Dress Barn, HB Fuller Company, Jabil Circuit, Landec Corporation, Lennar Corporation, and Red Hat Inc are releasing earnings.

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Unlock Dates for September 2006
9/27/06 – Himax Technologies is unlocking 52 million shares.

Wendy’s will distribute its remaining 82.75% stake in Tim Hortons Inc on September 29, 2006.  When these shares flood the market, look for THI to drop. THI has a PE of 19 when compared to a company like McDonald’s, which trades with a PE of 16, is much cheaper and has more growth.

Brought to you by http://www.vixtrader.com

Upgrades and Downgrades

Baidu.com upgraded by Citigroup from Sell to Hold.

Barnes & Noble upgraded by Goldman Sachs from Sell to Neutral.

Lam Research upgraded by CIBC World Markets from Sector Perform to Sector Outperform.

Time Warner upgraded by Morgan Stanley from Equal Weight to Overweight.

CNS Inc. downgraded by Ryan, Beck & Company from Outperform to Market Perform.

Lions Gate Entertainment downgraded by Sanders Morris Harris from Strong Buy to Buy (going out on a limb there, Sanders Morris Harris?)

Microsemi downgraded by Needham & Company from Strong Buy to Buy.

Talk America downgraded by Needham & Company from Buy to Hold.

U.S. Steel downgraded by UBS from Neutral to Reduce.
Brought to you by http://www.gressor.com.

Quote of the Day:
“The global strength and powerful leverage of Russia’s new gigantic corporate concerns will be difficult for the West to offset or to limit because Russia can move much faster down that path than can the West, thus enhancing its global market leverage, and even achieving monopoly status, in key resources-related areas before the West can react in a meaningful way.”

- W Joseph Stroupe, September 26, 2006

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