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Tuesday Oct 17, 2006

Deferring action

Taipan Group's Dynamic Market Alert

By J. Christoph Amberger

-- Deferring action
-- Clowns & Harlots: Going Once…
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Deferring action

by J. Christoph Amberger

The population of the U.S.A. topped 300 million today.  There is now one birth every seven seconds, one death every 13 seconds, and one new immigrant added every 31 seconds.

Immigrants are now accounting for a whopping 40% of U.S. growth. In terms of net immigration gains, the U.S. ranks third with a rate of 3.4 per 1,000, lagging behind Ireland and Australia.

By comparison, Russia has lost 3.4 million people between 2000 and 2005 and is now down to 143 million, with an accelerating trend toward shrinkage. Europe is expected to shed 10% of its total population contracting to 653 million by 2050... while Northern American populations will increase 32% through 2050.

--These numbers apparently go a long way to explain the rousing inaction both Democrats and Republicans are exercising in regard to the often-announced Social Security reform.

Like any pay-as-you-go system, Social Security can muddle along unchanged if there’s only enough people paying into the pot. It would appear like both parties have tacitly agreed on deferring any decisive political action by all means. Instead, they’re front-loading the active payers’ side with a million new immigrants a year… who hopefully will begin to pay as they go at some point and have kids who in turn will pay not only for their own immigrant parents but for two preceding generations as well.

I feel reminded of what the German journalist Gabor Steingart wrote:  “The most important resource of the twenty-first century is education, politicians say. What colossal error: The most important -- because scarcest -- resource of our days is strength of will.”

Let’s see how long lack of political will can be compensated by immigration.

Clowns & Harlots: Going Once…

by Christopher Corbett

 Before the first invitation to the first charity gala of the season arrives, turn to the New Testament, where even the most cursory examination will show that the Good Book emphasizes anonymity and humility in the matter of giving.

When I was in school, we were told that St. Paul said that charity covered a multitude of sins (an obvious reference to a charity auction).  Alas, a Bible scholar whom I keep on retainer tells me that it was actually St. Peter who said that.  Fine with me.

I have perused the Bible rigorously enough to know that there are no further references to charity auctions in the King James Version.  But a biblical charity auction is a fairly easy thing to imagine: “Spring Break on the Dead Sea.”  “Autographed Boxed Set of Ten Commandments.”  “Lunch with Jesus for you and three of your friends.”  “Family member raised from the dead.”  (Mutually agreeable date.)

So we have to take these matters on faith, which is not a bad way to approach a charity auction.  Patrons go to these things because they believe in some sort of cause -- or that it is a good thing for them to do.  Sucking up to new best friends, hoping to make partner, keeping that soup kitchen out of the neighborhood.

Like Gaul, charity auctions are divided into three parts.  First, the cocktails and silent auction.  Fight your way through a crowd you’d normally get only at a British soccer match for a plastic cup of cheap Zinfandel and hors d’oeuvres: tasteless shrimp, cold chicken livers wrapped in undercooked bacon, and a replica of the Taj Mahal made out of Colby cheese.  Having fun, yet?

Next, the dreaded seated dinner.  Vulcanized breast of chicken.  Birds-Eye peas treading water, rice pilaf (Rice-A-Roni).  Kiwanis banquet food.  Lashings of free table wine.  Get ‘em drunk and they might open their wallets.  And then, dyspeptic and despairing, you face the live auction, always presided over by an icy lady on loan from Sotheby’s (someone’s cousin).  Her contempt for the proceedings is palpable.
        
And the items to be auctioned.  Tickets to dubious theatrical ventures.  Tennis anyone?  One-hour private lesson with tennis pros Mel & Morty (are they back from rehab already?).  Symphony seats (obstructed view or Super Bowl Sunday).  Stuff that sounds ominously like someone could be clearing out The Closet of Old Gifts, regifting, as they say.  Imitation pewter sconces, life-size plastic goose lamp (seemed funny at wedding reception), trivets (has anyone ever needed trivets?), stuff from Orvis (who buys these things?).

The most important words included in the rules of the charity auction program are PLEASE READ THE INSTRUCTIONS CAREFULLY.  As they say at the consumer protection division, “If it looks too good to be true, bunky, it is.”  Extreme caution should be taken in bidding upon items whose value is said to be: “Priceless!!!!”  or “Can’t Be Bought!!!!”  In fact, it is best to pass on any item with more than one exclamation mark after its listed value.  Let me give you a little advice: If it can’t be bought, you don’t want it.

Bidding on a day at the office with someone deemed important may not be all it’s cracked up to be.  Unless you’re talking about Warren Buffet.  Be careful about the words “mutually convenient date” -- translates to “don’t hold your breath.”

Tickets to talk shows!  Hello, these are free.  They bring in homeless people and guys who bark at cars to fill the audiences at these things.

Seasonal restrictions.  That Adirondack cabin hideaway looks very nice on first glance.  Glance again, sport.  May (black flies the size of sparrows).  September (front warnings).  October or November (hunting season, stay out of the woods).

Vacation getaway items should be studied very, very closely.  Mountain villa in Peru.  (I actually know someone who bid on this).  Sounded exotic until they factored in the airfare.  About $4,000 per person.  And then the cholera epidemic.  And the Marxist banditti roaming the hills.  A little too exotic, perhaps?

Spring skiing in Steamboat Springs.  Sounds great.  But wait… the week does not coincide with your children’s spring vacation.  Condo available Wednesday to Wednesday.  Sleeps 12 (ever seen a Murphy bed other than in a Three Stooges movie?)

Nantucket.  Sounds good, too.  But in October?  Hurricanes. Children back in school.  Most island businesses closed for the season.  Ferry on winter schedule.  House uninsulated. Yikes.

Sports memorabilia.  (Fake, fake.)  Ever hear the one about the fool and his money being soon parted?

Lunch with local celebrity.  Local celebrity tending toward trained meteorologist, hard drinking retired children’s TV show host or sluttish FM radio starlet.

Magical evenings involving elegant buffets prepared by amateur chefs (usually several unlucky couples who bought cooking lessons at last year’s auction).

The real danger with these galas -- a fete worse than death, so to speak -- is that they are harder to get out of than the Book-of-the-Month Club.  Attend one and you are on the list.  Forever.  You will begin to get unwanted correspondence from local movers and shakers -- women otherwise unknown to you enticing you to attend other galas, signing their little mash notes “Muffin” and “Winky” and “Snooky” and drawing smiley faces on the envelopes.  There is a reason that they say charity begins at home.  My advice: Stay home.  Or you will rue the day you first wished to move and shake.

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Earnings Announcements Wednesday, October 18, 2006

Abbott Laboratories, Albemarle Corporation, AMR Corporation, Apple Computer Inc, City National Corporation, Datalink Corporation, E*Trade Financial Corporation, eBay Inc, JP Morgan Chase & Company, Juniper Networks, Knight Capital Group Inc, Occidental Petroleum Corporation, Piper Jaffray Companies, Ryland Group, Teradyne Inc, Washington Mutual Inc, and the WD-40 Company are releasing earnings.
 
Brought to you by http://www.AmericanCapitalist.net 

 

Unlock Dates for October 2006

10/23/06 – Corel Corporation is unlocking 6.5 million shares.
10/31/06 – Delek US Holdings is unlocking 10 million shares.

Brought to you by http://www.vixtrader.com

 

Upgrades and Downgrades

Dumb downgrade of the Week: Take-Two Interactive was downgraded by Am Tech / JSA Research from Buy to Neutral on the day Bully is being released by subsidiary, RockStar Games.  That’s just brilliant.  Ignore the downgrade.  We’re predicting Bully will sell like the Grand Theft Auto series… millions.

Abitibi-Consolidated downgraded by BMO Capital Markets from Market Perform to Underperform.

Dover Downs downgraded by Friedman Billings from Outperform to Market Perform.

Intel downgraded by Goldman Sachs from Buy to Neutral.

Shire Pharmaceutical downgraded by Credit Suisse from Outperform to Neutral.

Yahoo! downgraded by Cowen & Company from Outperform to Neutral.

EDO Corporation upgraded by Credit Suisse from Underperform to Neutral.

Jetblue Airways upgraded by Lehman Brothers from Equal-Weight to Overweight.

Brought to you by http://www.gressor.com

Quote of the Day:

“Though the situation isn’t that bad everywhere, a significant buildup of home inventory implies that permits and (housing) starts may continue to fall, and the market may not recover for several years.”

- Janet Yellen, president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Oct. 16, 2006

 

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