Wednesday Oct 18, 2006

Predictive abilities

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Predictive abilities

by J. Christoph Amberger

When I went online this morning at 7:30 a.m. and looked at the Dow futures, I ventured the prediction that today would be the day the Dow would blast through 12,000.

Only the best wife of ‘em all was there to hear me... and I’m not sure she was listening.

Which is why I just had to call her from the TV studio where we were shooting the TaipanFinancialNews.com Weekly Edition. Oddly enough, she seemed unimpressed with my uncanny predictive abilities.

EVS editor Ian Cooper wrote: “October has historically been one of the worst trading months of the year… but not this time.  (Some of the worst October hits came during the 1929 and 1987 crashes.)  The last time the Dow got anywhere near 12,000 was the pre-bubble-burst days of the Internet boom in 2000.  Now, after suffering from the dot-com burst, recessions and the aftermath of 9/11, the Dow has done it.  We’re above 12,000 and we’re likely to trend even higher on economic and corporate earnings bullishness. 

“The Dow’s fast-paced move above the ultimate psychological level came on the heels of a 4.9% rise in Big Blue shares, a Labor Department report stated that consumer prices fell 0.5% in September -- which should keep the Fed on hold with interest rates at next week’s meeting -- and a surprise September housing starts report of a 5.9% rise amid expectations for a 1.2% drop.

“Despite geopolitical concerns, the Dow isn’t the only market nailing new historic highs.  In fact, five months after a May-June 2006 market meltdown to 9,000, Bombay’s Sensex index just nailed a new lifetime high of 12,756, surging past the 12,671.11 high of May 11, 2006.  Once the rally sustains itself, we’re looking for heavy buy interest in small- and mid-cap names like Sify Ltd. and Rediff.com (two open positions in Extreme Volatility Speculator / Early Alert Trader).”

-- DMA reader Cyril P. apparently is concerned that I was not politically correct enough in Monday’s DMA, entitled “Character with a capital ‘c’.”

“Would you have laughed at a white dancer in a flowing silk shirt? And you have the nerve to talk about character with a capital ‘c.’”

Actually, had a white dancer, wearing an open silk shirt and flesh-colored Fruits-of-the-Looms, materialized on the stage to perform expressive modern dance movements to the tune of the Bach Etudes for cello, I’m afraid that not even character would have been able to keep a truly Olympian laughter bottled up inside me.

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Earnings Announcements Thursday, October 19, 2006

Arbitron Inc, Armor Holdings Inc, Avici Systems Inc, Bank of America Corporation, Barnes Group, BB&T Corporation, Cerner Corporation, Citigroup Inc, Cree Inc, EarthLink Inc, Google Inc, Honeywell International Inc, JAKKS Pacific Inc, Nokia Corporation, Rambus Inc, Stamps.com, TradeStation Group Inc, Vascular Solutions Inc, Xilinx Inc, and Zhone Technologies Inc are releasing earnings.
 
Brought to you by http://www.AmericanCapitalist.net

Unlock Dates for October 2006

10/23/06 – Corel Corporation is unlocking 6.5 million shares.
10/31/06 – Delek US Holdings is unlocking 10 million shares.

Brought to you by http://www.vixtrader.com

Upgrades and Downgrades

Dumb downgrade of the Week: Take-Two Interactive was downgraded by Am Tech / JSA Research from Buy to Neutral on the day Bully is being released by subsidiary, RockStar Games. 

American Eagle downgraded by UBS from Buy to Neutral.

Art Technology downgraded by Matrix Research from Buy to Hold.

Callaway Golf downgraded by Susquehanna Financial from Positive to Neutral.

EMC Corporation downgraded by Citigroup (from Buy to Hold) and by Friedman Billings (from Outperform to Market Perform).

Endo Pharmaceuticals downgraded by Citigroup form Hold to Sell.

Sealed Air downgraded by Matrix Research from Strong Buy to Buy.

Yahoo! downgraded by Piper Jaffray from Outperform to Market Perform.

Andrew Corporation upgraded by Robert W. Baird from Neutral to Outperform.

Dreamworkds upgraded by JP Morgan from Underweight to Neutral.

Johnson & Johnson upgraded by Prudential from Underweight to Neutral.

IBM upgraded by Goldman Sachs from Neutral to Buy.

UAL Corporation upgraded by Prudential from Underweight to Overweight.

Brought to you by http://www.gressor.com
 

Quote of the Day:

“ A number of countries have issued sanctions against North Korea. Particularly bans on importing of luxury items – mainly platform shoes that Kim Jung Il wears.”

- Jay Leno, Oct. 16, 2006

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