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Monday Oct 30, 2006

Wait a minute, buster

Taipan Group's Dynamic Market Alert

By J. Christoph Amberger

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Wait a minute, buster

by J. Christoph Amberger

The nice thing about mainstream financial reporting is that you are able to create plausible reasons for any given move on any given index from any given set of economic date. Most readers of those news stories apparently have such short attention spans that it never occurs to them to shake their heads and say, “Wait a minute, buster.”

Today’s initial dip in the Dow provided a beautiful case in point. MarketWatch wrote: “U.S. stock futures declined on Monday, as concerns about the health of the economy were reignited over the weekend by Wal-Mart Stores’ below-forecast October sales numbers.”

This makes sense only if you are willing to accept that investors consider the U.S. equity market as a proxy for U.S. economic growth. Of course, if you take your nose out of the newspaper and maybe even a step back, you’ll notice that in the past four years, investors haven’t given a hoot about economic growth.

To the contrary: In years with stunning economic growth (Europeans would call it enviable), the U.S. indices underperformed. Only as GDP growth started to slow down did the Dow begin to set new records.

That’s because investors have come to associate a booming economy with inflation risk. Inflation risk prompts the Fed to raise rates. And raised rates prompt investors to funnel their cash into “safe” investments with decent yields... like treasuries.

The other canard most investors subscribe to is that the market is about corporate earnings. Here, not only the Internet bubble is a proof to the contrary -- when companies with no earnings and no prospects of earnings commanded premium prices -- but the years past 9/11, which saw a swell in corporate earnings that was in no way accompanied with a corresponding increase in stock valuations.

Stock markets are about two things: the motional expectations that investors have toward their immediate economic well-being and the relative ease and safety with which competitive profits can be generated for the big players.

In election campaigns -- especially dirty ones, such as the one we’re going through right now -- the internal barometer of well-being may be skewed in the short term, thanks to the amount of lies that are being doled out by campaigning candidates.

But look at the competitors for investors’ cash: Most assets have suffered from severe drops and setbacks this year that spell “RISK” to the small- and large-scale investor alike. Money is looking for prolonged uptrends.

Uptrends like those demonstrated by U.S. stock indices.

Which is why I continue to be bullish on U.S. stocks... especially after Election Day.

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Earnings Announcements

Acta Holding, Alcan Inc, American Electric Power, Archer Daniels Midland Company, Aventine Renewable Energy Inc, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Cummins Inc, Diversa Corporation, Eastman Kodak Company, Hilton Hotels Corporation, Home Properties Inc, i2 Technologies, Kaman Corporation, Loews Corporation, Marathon Oil Corporation, Nam Tai Electronics, Orckit Communications, Papa John’s International Inc, Procter & Gamble Corporation, Qwest Communications, RailAmerica Inc, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd, Steel Technologies, UAL Corporation, Under Armour Inc, Vital Images Inc, and Vonage Holdings Corporation are releasing earnings.

Brought to you by http://www.AmericanCapitalist.net

Unlock Dates for October/November 2006

10/31/06 – Delek U.S. Holdings is unlocking 10 million shares.
11/8/06 – Basin Water is unlocking 6 million shares.
11/13/06 – Restore Medical is unlocking 4 million shares.
11/14/06 – Burger King is unlocking 25 million shares.
11/21/06 – MasterCard is unlocking 61.5 million shares.
11/29/06 – Luna Innovations Inc is unlocking 3.5 million shares.

Brought to you by http://www.gressor.com

 

Upgrades and Downgrades

Ameriprise Financial upgraded by Banc of America from Sell to Neutral.

Cox Radio upgraded by Stanford Research from Sell to Hold.

Diamond Offshore upgraded by Deutsche Securities from Hold to Buy.

Pacific Sunwear upgraded by JP Morgan from Underweight to Neutral.

Willis Group upgraded by Morgan Stanley from Equal Weight to Overweight.

Alltel downgraded by Robert W. Baird from Outperform to Neutral.

Ingersoll-Rand upgraded by Deutsche Securities from Buy to Hold.

K-Swiss downgraded by Matrix Research from Strong Buy to Buy.

LSI Logic downgraded by Matrix Research from Buy to Hold.

Pride International downgraded by Wachovia from Outperform to Market Perform.

STMicroelectronics downgraded by Robert W. Baird from Outperform to Neutral.

WebSideStory downgraded by Needham & Company from Strong Buy to Buy.

Whole Foods downgraded by RBC Capital Markets from Outperform to Sector Perform.

Brought to you by http://www.vixtrader.com

 

Quote of the Day:

“Here’s some inside showbiz news. There’s lots of troubles at NBC. As many as 700 employees will be fired at NBC. Things are so bad that the NBC peacock was found in a KFC bucket today.”

- David Letterman, October 27, 2006

 

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