Friday Nov 10, 2006

The China Choo-Choo Cha-Cha

Taipan Group's Dynamic Market Alert

By J. Christoph Amberger

-- The China Choo-Choo Cha-Cha
-- 2007 Market Prediction
-- New Gains for WaveStrength Options Weekly

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The China Choo-Choo Cha-Cha

by Stephanie Grimmett, Taipan

Think of the worst commute you’ve ever had. Now triple the length of time it took you to get to work and add enough exhaust fumes to have you coughing and wheezing during three-quarters of the drive, and you get some idea what its like to be a commuter on China’s urban roads.

Economic success is allowing more and more Chinese citizens to own cars. The number of privately owned vehicles in China almost doubles each year. Roads are continually clogged with traffic, not just during rush hour, but all day. And the transportation authority can’t keep up with the needs of its ever-expanding vehicular population, no matter how many lanes they add to the roads each year.

According to one Chinese newspaper, a truck on some of the country’s most congested highways will move only three meters in so many hours. And drives that should take a few minutes take entire days.

To ease congestion and get its population to work on time, the Chinese government is investing billions in its railway system.

Already, approximately 35% of passenger traffic in China runs over the railways each year. In 2005, the country’s railway system moved more than one billion passengers. And that number could double as China’s central government pushes to have 100,000 kilometers of working railroad tracks by 2020.

To make this expansion a reality without dipping in to its own pockets, China is turning to Western business practices. The Chinese government is planning to sell some of its own shares in the country’s top transportation enterprises to build capital and fund further development.

One of those transportation enterprises is a railway company that supports the largest industrial center in China (one-third of China’s total exports come from this area). The rail company provides reliable commuter service to the three major cities in this manufacturing hub in the fastest, most modern trains in the country.

At the moment, the railway company needs funds to expand and buy a connecting railway. And the Chinese government is selling some of its own shares in the company on a local stock exchange to support the business venture.

But stock markets in emerging economies are always risky. They may not require the same level of security and circumspection of their listed companies that U.S. and European markets provide. And the Chinese government doesn’t exactly welcome foreign (especially Western) investors to its stock markets with open arms.

It’s difficult, without using American-operated funds, to find a way into Chinese markets and difficult to keep track of stocks in those markets, especially when you can’t read or speak the local language.

But Taipan’s executive publisher, J. Christoph Amberger, found a way to avoid the domestic Chinese stock exchanges and still benefit from the country’s transportation boom. You can read specifics in his special report by clicking below.

http://www.isecureonline.com/reports/TAI/WTAIGB29/

2007 Market Prediction

by Ian L. Cooper, EVS / Early Alert Trader

Brash, overly aggressive, too handsome for his own good, irreverent… I’ve heard it all before. But one thing I can’t stand hearing is that you can’t trade on speculation, news or even rumor. I’ve racked up a cumulative gain of more than 9,500% over the last three years, so you’ll excuse me when I tell those people what they can do with their ignorance.

That aside, I want you to mark these words (and remember where you heard this first):

By midyear 2007, the Dow will nail a new all-time high of 13,000. Laugh it up. But some of you were laughing at the 12,000 predictions this time last year.

The economy’s strong. Corporate profits are running amok. And there are not a lot of policy changes that’ll be made over the next two years. With the Democrats facing off with George W. Bush, we’ll definitely see a minimum wage hike and a cutback on student loan interest rates, but that’s about it.

Sure, there are concerns that U.S. consumers will suffer from the poor health of the housing sector, but keep in mind that inflation is docile, interest rates are falling and stock valuations are still attractive. And keep in mind that we have the calendar on the bulls’ side. Historically, following midterm elections, stocks have scored their biggest gains.

Here’s another prediction: By midyear 2007, the Bombay Stock Exchange, Sensex, will nail 14,000.

But we’re not the only economy in the world growing at breakneck pace; India is watching its economy grow at an 8% annual clip. Despite the millions still living under the poverty level, “India is the fastest-growing market for wealth creation,” according to Business Week.

India has become the ultimate investment. Here’s a country that watched its Sensex melt down to 9,000 in May and June before nailing a new all-time high above 13,000. That’s after breaking through 12,000 on April 20; after breaking through 11,000 on March 27, 2006; and after breaking through 10,000 on February 7, 2006.

But the rally is far from over. In fact, as the economy continues to improve, we could see Sensex 14K by the middle of next year. Consider this: More than 83,000 Indians have liquid “assets greater than $1 million, up from $71,000 two years ago,” according to Business Week.

The prime minister is bullish. The Indian economy is strong. Corporate profits are accumulating. And poverty levels are expected to decline over the next 10 years.

Doing what I do best, I’m speculating a couple of near-term occurrences in India. First, as the economy improves and more jobs are created, decreasing poverty levels will begin to bridge India’s digital divide. And second, as the popularity of Internet use continues to surge, we’re speculating that two Indian e-commerce companies could be bought out by Yahoo or Google.

Here’s what we’re basing that buyout speculation on:

First, take into consideration that India is expected to see a 160% jump in Internet users, according to TheInquirer.net, which will drive more traffic and revenue to Internet sites.

Now consider that Yahoo, which just inked an $8.6 million deal with Bharat Matrimoney, an Internet personals site (the Indian online matrimonial market is worth an estimated $200 million), is reportedly “hungry for more acquisitions and tie-ups,” according to BusinessWeek.com.

In fact, Yahoo is so hot for India that it’s already announced “plans to launch up to six new portals in regional languages, and acquire or enter into a partnership with an Indian company,” according to Business-Standard.com. In fact, a decision on a partnership or acquisition is expected over the next six to 10 months.

Our Google assumption is based on an invitation for applications from people who can “identify and evaluate acquisition opportunities across existing and future market opportunities, drive management team decisions, lead deal execution, and help manage post-acquisition integration and performance evaluation in the South Asia region, ” according to RedHerring.com. That tells me Google’s on the hunt, too.

My 2007 prediction: The Sensex will nail 14K by the middle of 2007. And the Dow will easily hit, or even surpass 13,000 by midyear, too.

Remember where you heard that first. When it happens, letters of congratulations can be sent to Ian L. Cooper, 808 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore, Maryland 21202.

Click here to learn more!

New Gains for WaveStrength Options Weekly

WOW's got new max gains in three positions this week.

Seems that there have been no major hurricanes this year. The season ends 11/30, and AIG is now rolling in cash.

Who knew? We knew: The AIG (AIG: NYSE) calls we recommended in WOW are up 115.38%.

Right about the time the whole world was getting mighty comfortable with sub-$60 oil, we noted that winter would indeed arrive.

Those who listened to this radical bit of advice are up 53.13% on Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE: AMEX) calls and 47.17% on Halliburton (HAL:NYSE) calls.

Current average WOW max gain is now 60.34%, while cumulative max gains moved up to 844.77%

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