Investing in Spider Man 3: Death by Spider
By Ian Cooper
Amidst an extremely profitable Death Cross Trader run (95% accuracy, 2,083% cumulative gains, and an average gain of 95%, all since February 6, 2007), we’re now keeping a close watch on overhyped shares of Marvel (MVL) heading into the May 2007 release of Spiderman 3.
Here’s why.
Take a look at what happened to Marvel following the release of the first Spiderman movie. In 2002, after running from $2.50 to more than $6 on Spidey hype, the stock sold off shortly after the film’s release, falling from about $6 to less than $3.50 a month later.
Then, on the June 30, 2004 release of Spiderman 2, the stock tanked from about $20 to less than $13 in a month’s time.
And by this May’s release of the third installment, we could see the same situation unfold following the 15% jump from about $26 to $30 in recent weeks. Is it an unexplainable phenomenon wreaking havoc on unsuspecting investors? Nah, investors, too, are well aware of the coming doom after this product’s release and opt to short the hype-driven stock for quick gains on the downside. The stock, it seems, has already priced in hype surrounding Spiderman 3.
But it’s just not the pulling of the hype premium that could kill the stock near-term. It’s the competition, too, as Shrek the Third and Pirates of the Caribbean, also sequels, are also slated for May 2007 releases. There are cannibalization fears that the three blockbusters could draw from each others’ audience.
Plus, the problem here is that Spiderman 3 is a sequel, and sequels have a history of under-performing originals. That has concerned investors worried that the movie won’t be able to beat the $822 million in the original Spiderman total sales or Spiderman 2’s $783 million in total sales considering that sequels, according to Reuters, “often fail to top originals.”
Stay tuned to Death Cross Trader for specific trade information. Buy too early and you could get burned. Buy too late and you’ll miss a chunk of the expected downside.
Ian L. Cooper,
Death Cross Trader
Wanted: Serious Capitalists Only… Cowards need not apply…
Since February 6, 2007, we’re 21 for 22 (95% accuracy) with cumulative gains of 2,083% and an average gain of 95%. That, even as the Dow and the NASDAQ added a paltry one percent…
Take a look at these gains…
89% and 214% gains on New Century January 2008 25 puts
53% and 103% gains on New Century August 2007 7.50 puts
57% and 34% gains on New Century January 2008 7.50 puts
59% and 291% gains on Fremont General September puts
87% and 108% gains on Countrywide January 2008 40 puts
100% and 43% gains on DIA March 123 puts
103% and 364% gains on Accredited Home January 2008 20 puts…
And this all took an average of 20 minutes a week to make these gains. Just ask Max L. who says, “I bought 10 contracts of FMT on Thursday, 3/8 at $1.75 and sold them Tuesday, 3/13 at $2.90. Not bad for a 5 day hold.”
Or Larry P. who says, “I made a quick 85% gain on the August (New Century) puts and 57% on the January LEAPS.”
And Maria M. who says, “I am doing just wonderfully since I found you guys. You are the best. I am making money and having fun.”
Truth is – Death Cross Trader is just getting warmed up. It’s only April and we’re already sitting on 2,099% cumulative gains. Read more here…
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