Crisis Investing in Emerging Markets: Waiting for the Bottom in Turkey...
By Chris DeHaemer
Turkey’s currency, the lira, got rocked overnight as the stock market took a hit after the military threatened a devout Muslim who is the leading presidential candidate of the ruling party.
The lira fell 4.4% against the dollar. And the stock index declined 8% before pulling back a bit to 6.2%.
Ever since General Ataturk founded modern Turkey based on a military secular government there has been a power struggle between the religious and military factions. Yesterday a mob of 700,000 people stormed Istanbul to protest the candidacy of Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul, who was a member of the pro-Islamic Welfare Party ousted from government by the army in 1997 and subsequently banned.
The army has forced four governments out of office since 1960. It is too soon to know whether or if they will do it again.
My favorite play on Turkey is Turkcell (TKC), which I’ve been buying and selling for about 10 years now. The company is growing revenues at 88% year over year, a forward P/E of 11 and a dividend yield of 3%. In fact, it has been a great producer going from around $2 to $16.
I’ve been wanting to get back into Turkcell for a few years now. It’s too soon to buy now, but if the stock drops down around $12, I’m a buyer. We’ll see where it goes today.
Sincerely,
Christian DeHaemer,
GRESSOR
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