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Expecting A Cut

By Steven Lord

Friday May 18, 2007

 

With most of the financial community trying to predict when the Federal Reserve will move on U.S. interest rates, we decided to check what the smartest rate-prediction machine in the world is saying.

The message is as clear as a bell -- the bond market wants a rate cut. The spread between the yields of 90-day Treasury bills (set by the market) and the Fed funds rate (set by the Fed) is now roughly 60 basis points, the highest spread since the days immediately following the attacks on 9/11.

And just so you know, the bond folks are rarely wrong about this sort of thing. Based on what the spread suggests, there will be a rate cut before the end of the year.

Sincerely,

Steven Lord
Editor, Trend Investor

 

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