By S.R. Nunnally

National gasoline prices were up last week to an average $2.23 per gallon. But oil prices fell during the same time. Why is this happening?

Well, this time of year sees a transition in refining from gasoline to heating oil. It's also holiday travel season. In other words, we're making less gasoline at the same time that people are demanding more of it.

Estimates from AAA show 38.3 million traveling this Thanksgiving (an increase of 2.7%), of which 31.7 million travel on the roads.

The good news is that gas prices are down about $0.10 from this time last year.

More good news is that heating oil is also down slightly today, along with crude oil prices, and natural gas prices.

I'd been talking about how natural gas prices will turn higher before oil or heating oil prices. I think I'm right, and am looking for a pop with expiration. The difference in prices for December futures and January futures is a huge $0.50…

We've already seen natural gas make larger strides than crude, but I think crude oil will begin to pick up its feet and make some gains before the end of the year.

My estimate for crude -- if you recall -- had been $65 a barrel by the end of the year. I think we can at least get close to that number even though we had a good-sized drop in price on Friday.

As I've said, that drop probably had more to due with profit-taking before expiration than any change in trend.

Here's what to look for over the next five weeks…

Crude oil needs to climb $1.32 a week to reach my $65 a barrel forecast. I think we'll get that much and more each week for the next three weeks. As we approach the top of oil's range -- at about $63.50 or so -- we'll see some slowdown. If we burst through that resistance, you can expect $65 a barrel in the early days of the New Year.

Heating oil will follow much the same pattern as crude oil, but this commodity may be a bit more fluid, and movements higher (or lower) will come more swiftly than with crude. At the end of three weeks, heating oil may be back up around $1.80 a gallon. This point coincides with crude oil's range as well. Headed into the New Year, I will hold to my prediction of $1.90 a gallon.

Natural gas, which has led the charge thus far, will continue to make larger gains than either crude or heating oil. A quick jump after expiration will tack on $0.50 at least, so that in three weeks time you could see prices around $9.25 per thousand cubic feet. At the end of December, I'd put natural gas at $9.50 or $9.55.