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WaveStrength Material Profits for November 28, 2006

Energy Favorites


By S.R. Nunnally

Let's see how our favorite energy recommendations are doing. We'll start first with Peabody Energy Corp. (BTU:NYSE).

As far as coal companies go, BTU is the best in the business, but just like many others, it has taken quite a beating over the past five months. One thing that's been keeping BTU down is the declining price of coal.

Coal prices are 33% lower than this time last year, and there doesn't seem to be any sign of a turnaround.

The warmer weather and warm winter forecasts aren't helping to alleviate these low prices either. The folks at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are predicting temperatures 2% above normal. Even though we'll be slightly colder than last year, temperatures will still be higher than their 30-year average.

With two warm winters in a row, and record production from mining companies, coal inventories are stacked.

All this doesn't add up to good forecasts for coal companies. Most analysts are predicting this glut of coal supplies will disappear sometime next year, mostly due to production cuts. But until then coal mining companies, like BTU, will have to grit their teeth and tighten their belts.

There is some positive technical news, however. BTU may have bucked its recent downtrend from back in May.

The chart shows that the top trend line from the downtrend crosses BTU's price at about $38.70. With prices more than 10% higher than that, we could see BTU starting a new uptrend.

It will be mild and slow going, but I believe BTU has turned itself around. Look for BTU to start testing the $50 mark in four to six months.

My next favorite energy stock is ConocoPhillips (COP:NYSE). After all the hobnobbing about since October 2005, COP's managed to stay in its long-term uptrend.

In fact, since testing its bottom trend line, COP's risen more than 13%.

We all know the prognosis for oil prices is much better than that of coal prices. I've predicted $65 a barrel by the end of the year. Today, oil prices moved about $0.70, and sustained its position above $60.

COP's got some great developments in the hopper, too. It and Anadarko Petroleum (APC:NYSE) started up the Nanuq field in Alaska's North Slope on Monday. COP's also involved in a possible pipeline development that would bring natural gas from the North Slope to the Midwest in the U.S.

Of course, there's still the possibility of being contracted to help develop Russia's vast Shtokman gas field. Additionally, COP has a very successful relationship with Lukoil. It currently owns 19% of the company, and will increase that portion to 20% by the end of the year. That equates to $9 billion in investment.

COP should continue its growth, and I expect the company to reach $70 in the next three to four months, and to test its high of $72.50 by the end of spring.

That's all for today. On Thursday we'll talk about Chevron (CVX:NYSE) and the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE:AMEX).