WaveStrength Macro Outlook for December 6, 2006
Wheels Within Wheels: the very same sector that is holding back the Dow is already gearing up for the Dow's next up-cycle
By Adam Lass
All sorts of interesting stuff in today's Dow chart. Okay, it's only interesting if you're either a technician, bearish or both. Since I am both, I think it's fascinating.
First up: we have a single candlestick with minimal gain or loss and par entry and exit prices, i.e. a spinning top, a doji at the top of trend, or, as our friend Ian Cooper likes to call them, a death cross.
If you can't figure out what comes after a “death cross,” well, you are simply not using your imagination.
Position-wise, the Dow just hit and stalled at the previous high, making for a modest but reasonably clear double top, also a rather bearish signal.
Meanwhile, the corollary indicators like Momentum and MACD are arguing amongst themselves as to whether this is a short-term sell signal, or a “climb under your school desk and wait for the flash” signal.
(Anyone over the age of 45 or so knows what I am referring to. The rest of you youngsters will have to wait till Iran gets the bomb to truly understand and enjoy cold-sweating nuclear fear.)
Back to the Dow: we are most probably heading back toward the bottom of the recent sideways trend at 12,072. The question of the day is “Are we going to stop there? Or is this the beginning of the Dow's next (and increasingly overdue) cyclic 15% drop?”
We'll know for sure soon enough. Meanwhile, housing (already credited as this down-cycle's trigger) appears to be gearing up as the next up-cycle's stimulant. Can you just hear Elton John singing about the cycle of life in the background? If so, maybe it's time to switch to decaf.