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Oil and Gas Retreat - WaveStrength Trading Tactics for December 18, 2006


Unseasonably warm temperatures over the weekend have pushed crude-oil futures back under $63 a barrel.

by Bryan Bottarelli

Unseasonably warm temperatures over the weekend have pushed crude-oil futures back under $63 a barrel. At the same time, natural-gas futures approached a two-year low as many parts of the East Coast topped 55 degrees in the week leading up to Christmas.

Although Adam has covered the effect of weather patterns on oil and gas prices in his daily columns, it's important to reinforce the idea that mild weather conditions generate significantly lower-than-normal storage pulls. And this reduction in demand leads to softening prices on both oil and gas.

And despite OPEC's decision last week to cut supplies (which initially pushed oil prices higher), the warm weather plus the skepticism that OPEC actually follows through on their decision to cut production could push oil prices back to $60 a barrel. With Natural Gas flirting with the lows of the year, I wouldn't be surprised to see oil peek off $2 per barrel over the next two weeks. But of course, that doesn't mean the price reductions will last forever. The first cold front to come through will quickly push prices right back up - creating more volatility in the oil sector.

But at the same time, warmer weather could be a great sign for retailers, as more shoppers are willing to take advantage of the great weather and hit the pavement in search for those last minute holiday gifts.

So as oil and gas companies experience weather-related weakness, retailers are loving the unseasonably warm weather.