Another Year, Come and Gone - WaveStrength Market Trends for December 22, 2006
I guess it’s all in how you look at it...
It always amazes me… We start the year off fresh, knowing that we have a whole year in front of us to get things done, and the next thing we know it's November, and we're wrapping things up.
I guess it's all in how you look at it: whether you view time linearly, from Sunday to Saturday and from January to December… or whether you have a cyclical view of possibility stemming from the past.
Regardless, a lot of interesting events happened this year. So I'd like to take a short trip down memory lane to highlight some major events. (I, of course, can't include them all.)
January 2006: Russia cut its natural gas pipeline to Ukraine. Israel Prime Minister Ariel Sharon suffered a stroke. Samuel Alito, after much debate, was sworn in as a justice on the Supreme Court. The Dow closed above 11,000 for the first time since 2001.
February 2006: The Pittsburgh Steelers won the Super Bowl against the Seattle Seahawks. (Go Baltimore Ravens for 2007!) The 2006 Winter Olympics began and ended. The one-billionth song was sold by the Apple iTunes store. (Apple Computer, Inc. (AAPL:NASDAQ) shares had hit historic highs in January at $86.40 per share. It's currently valued at $82.42.)
March 2006: Slobodan Milosevic was found deceased in his UN War Crimes Tribunal detention center cell. 500,000 people protested in Los Angeles against a proposal combating illegal immigration.
April 2006: Avian Flu was detected for the first time in the United Kingdom, infecting a swan in Scotland. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon was removed from his duties after four months in coma. Iran announced that it had successfully enriched uranium. Iran then announced an enrichment deal with Russia. (Uranium had just breached $40 per pound.)
May 2006: Bolivia nationalized its gas fields. The Great American Boycott protested proposals combating illegal immigration
June 2006: The 2006 World Cup began in Germany. Warren Buffet donated $30 billion to the Melinda and Bill Gates Foundation.
July 2006: North Korea test fired seven missiles. The Israel-Lebanon conflict began, brought on by Hezbollah kidnapping soldiers from Israel.
August 2006: London police arrested 21 people concerning an alleged terrorist plot involving planes. A ceasefire took effect between Israel and Lebanon. Pluto was downgraded from full planet status to “dwarf” planet status.
September 2006: Pope Benedict XVI criticized the Islamic faith, and incited protest. Spinach in the United States was contaminated with a sometimes-deadly strain of E. coli. The Louisiana Super Dome reopened for the first season game of the New Orleans Saints football team since Hurricane Katrina.
October 2006: A shooting occurs at an Amish school in Pennsylvania. North Korea claimed to have performed its first nuclear test. Google, Inc. (GOOG:NASDAQ) bought YouTube. (GOOG was trading near $500 per share, and hit a high of $513 per share by November 2006.) The Dow closed above 12,000.
November 2006: Saddam Hussein was sentenced to death. Microsoft Corp. (MSFT:NASDAQ) and Novell, Inc. (NOVL:NASDAQ) announced a collaboration deal regarding software. Democrats won control of Congress, for the first time since 1994. Donald Rumsfeld resigned.
December 2006: Kirk Kerkorian sold his last shares of General Motors Corp. (GM:NYSE). (GM still trades $12.00 higher than its low of $18.00 in late 2005.)
As in all years, it's been an eventful time, sometimes frighteningly so. The most exciting event for you as investors going into 2007 is the possibility of more consecutive new highs being hit on the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
If I were to make three predictions for 2007?
The Russell-2000 (RUT) is going to be the next major index to break out to new highs (even after the January Effect has come and gone). I place a price target of $900 on this index by December 2007.
The Dow will continue on to 14,000, but will undergo a slight correction in June and July.
And finally… The dollar will bottom out at its current value of $1.00 per 0.75 euro… and find a quick rise to $1.00 per 0.90 euro by third-quarter 2007.