Cycles within Cycles - WaveStrength Material Profits for January 2, 2007
Today's commodities bull needs to be selective.
The commodities boom is far from over, but that doesn't mean -- as it nearly did a spare year ago -- that every commodity play is a good one.
Today's commodities bull needs to be selective.
During last week's break, I highlighted six sectors in the Dynamic Market Alert free daily digest: three conservative and three aggressive that will do well in 2007.
In the conservative corner, agriculture is a favorite of mine. We've looked at companies in the fertilizer industry, the irrigation industry and the genetic seed industry. Grain prices are on the rise…
Corn climbed 39% in the fourth quarter of 2006, oats and soybeans jumped 21% a piece, and wheat was able to sustain prices 30% higher than what they were in January 2006.
I think the agricultural industry will be a big area for investment in 2007. Worldwide droughts and grain shortages are sure to keep pressure on grain prices. Ethanol demand will also support higher corn prices.
A MarketWatch.com article quoted Todd Hultman, president of DailyFutures.com as saying, “Five years from now we will look back and identify 2006 as the year that the world woke up to the mergence of ethanol as a significant fuel. Barring a major international incident, the perpetual shortage of crude oil and expansion of the ethanol industry will likely be the major stories for the rest of this decade.”
The expansion of ethanol production will also sweep other grains into the mix, like wheat and soybeans.
Seed providers, irrigation specialists and fertilizer producers will all benefit from the attention the agricultural industry will receive in 2007. Watch the seed providers like Syngenta AG (SYT:NYSE) and genetic seed companies, like Monsanto (MON:NYSE), closely.
More aggressive investors will find some great opportunities in the uranium sector. I personally like the selection of junior explorers best, and those with land in Australia are among my favorites.
Our Material Profits speculative play, Paladin Resources, Ltd. (PDN:ASX) is one I think every investor should take a look at. Material Profits took gains of 21% back in mid October 2006, but PDN has since climbed even higher. In the last quarter of 2006, PDN jumped 84%!
It's no wonder that PDN is performing so well when you look at what uranium has done recently. Spot price on December 25, 2006 was $72 a pound… a 12.5% rise over November's spot price and an amazing 914% rise from December 25, 2000.
When it comes to uranium, Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter told MarketWatch.com, “$100 is a questions of when, not if.”
Nuclear energy will see huge growth in the next 15-30 years, with countries like China working feverishly to bring new reactors online. Average fuel consumption for reactors is 400,000 pounds of uranium a year. At current spot price levels, that equates to $28.8 million per reactor each year. The United States alone has 103 reactors, and China plans to build 30 in the next 15 years…
It's not hard to see why junior explorers are having a field day. Some key things you'll want to look for in a junior uranium explorer are advanced projects. PDN's just starting its Australian exploration, but it has an advanced project in Africa that just started production -- on time and on budget!
That kind of success and efficiency will bring in a lot of buyers, which will inevitably further the company's other projects.
Uranium and agriculture are just two sectors that will sustain the commodities boom in 2007. We'll discuss more industries as the week progresses, and also talk about a couple that are going to underperform in 2007.
Think coal and copper…
In the meantime, try to catch me live on Bloomberg tomorrow at 1:30 p.m. EST.
Welcome back!