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I'm drinking the "perverse logic" Kool-Aid - WaveStrength Macro Outlook for January 4, 2007


Today the news is rife with depressing missives.

by Adam Lass

Today the news is rife with depressing missives.

Retail's heavy hitters are reporting half decent sales and lousy profits: of 51 stores participating in an industry poll, 23 beat expectations, 25 missed and three stores came in par…

The Institute for Supply Management notes that its index of service sector business activity slowed from 58.9 in November to 57.1 in December…

And finally, the Labor Department reports that 10,000 more folks filed unemployment applications last week than the week before.

You know what? It's all good.

That's right, I'm drinking from the forbidden “Good is bad and bad is good cup.” In years past, I have warned of the poisonous nature of this sort of twisted logic. But today, I am getting right down into the mud with the rest of the idiots.

Seriously, I have been calling for months for exactly these “signs of tribulation” to arrive right about now, so I am not reeling in shock and awe at their arrival. This is exactly why I have recommended girding any long portfolio with Diamond Put contracts.

It is also why I have been long the real estate market, as these “evil portents” are the perfect excuse for a rate drop the Fed has been praying for going into the January FOMC meeting.

Add in falling gasoline prices, and the deal is almost done. Is a drop now wise and prudent? Personally I think not, but I am not a board member, voting or otherwise, so my opinion matters not.

Your best bet remains riding real estate in the shortest term via call options against the SPDR and select stocks.