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Newspaper Shakeup

By

Thursday Jan 18, 2007

by Ann Sosnowski


More news on the Tribune Company (TRB:NYSE)

TRB's biggest shareholder, the Chandler family, has made a bid for the company that values the newspaper company at $7.6 billion.

The Chandler family wants to spin off the company's broadcast and entertainment operations, focusing the company primarily on newspaper operations… and probably take it private.

I spoke about Tribune earlier in the week. In fact, tomorrow, you should receive a video alert from Taipan Financial News, where I consider TRB a suicide stock for your portfolio. In other words, if you're holding it, I advise completely unloading your position.

Why? Well first of all, the company has $5 billion in debt and only $240 million in cash, a death sentence for most companies, especially ones that are experiencing revenue drain like TRB. Additionally, Tribune has been anticipating bids for the company and/or its parts since September 2006, and extended that deadline in November into what was purported to be this past Wednesday, January 17.

Either no one was bidding, or the price wasn't right.

The company that owns such newspapers as the Los Angeles Times, Chicago Tribune and The Baltimore Sun right here in my hometown owns only one business that I consider an advantage to the company: It purchased the Chicago Cubs in 1981 for $21 million, considered at that time to be an outrageous price. Now the Chicago Cubs are worth over $400 million.

What I also consider to be a thorn in the side for the company is The McCormick Tribune Foundation, which owns almost 12% of Tribune stock. The foundation has hired BlackStone Group to reevaluate its position in the company on rumors that Tribune is trying to sell its parts.

If McCormick decides to start unloading shares, it will be devastating for the stock.

Additionally, while the Chandler family is offering a bid of $7.6 billion for the whole company, disclosed in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing yesterday, analysts have valued the company at about $14 billion, including its $5 billion in debt that a buyer would have to take on.

Add to the mix that Eli Broad and Ronald W. Burkle made a $500 million offer to refinance the company and in essence, become Tribune's largest shareholder. This deal would give each shareholder a $27 dividend payment for each share, in exchange for 31% of the company's shares. Broad and Burkle have expressed interest in owning the Los Angeles Times in their hometown.

According to The New York Times:

“Tribune is planning a board meeting this weekend to review the bidding and to try to figure out what to do next. If neither bid satisfies the Tribune board, the company may decide not to sell itself at all, putting it back where it was last spring, when the Chandler family complained about the low stock price, setting the auction in motion.”

Today, TRB is up slightly on the news, but extremely oversold on Money Flow. It has failed to regain any support in the short-term (10-day or 50-day Moving Averages) as well as on the 200-day Moving Average.

TRB has lost 50% of its value since 1999. Currently valued at $31 per share, I expect both the Chandler bid and the Broad and Burkle bid unacceptable to Tribune, keeping the newspaper company at the bottom of the barrel.

TRB is a suicide stock. The outcome of this mess is immeasurable. I highly recommend unloading any shares if you own them… unless you are an extreme risk taker.

In that case, it's all up to you.

Even though I continue to believe in a newspaper industry renaissance, and remain bullish on The New York Times Company (NYT:NYSE) that doesn't mean that all newspaper company stocks are created equal.

And I regret to inform you that TRB is at the bottom of my list.