Two items that matter today: The first is the oil “surprise.” Actually, this sudden spike in oil prices came as no surprise at all to anyone who has been watching my “Scarsdale Effect” series in TFN's Chart of the Day.

The concept is really very simple. (So simple, in fact, that it drives many “sophisticated” analysts absolutely nuts.)

Everyone knows that oil is a fungible asset the price of which is determined by global supply and demand, right? Well as usual, what “everybody knows” is wrong. The price of various products like crude oil, heating fuel, and natural gas are actually decided at a handful of futures markets, and the dominant one is New York City's NYMEX.

Now here's the hilarious part: The traders on the NYMEX floor have access to a remarkable array of reports on such topics as international reserves, wellhead flow rates, and the weather in Timbuktu.

And yet none of that really matters. Last week, three quarters of the United States from Akron to Malibu was encased in snow and cranked-up furnaces were drinking up all the heating fuel they could get -- and oil futures contracts went down.

Why? Because these guys are human and trust their gut calls more than they trust reports. And it was still only in the low 50's at lunchtime in Manhattan.

But this morning, when those NYMEX traders stepped out of their homes in the affluent suburbs surrounding New York City (hence the name Scarsdale), with snow on the driveway and ice on a couple hundred Lexus' windshields, suddenly the price of February natural gas futures went up 20% in short order.

And the energy rally isn't over yet, not by a long shot. Right now, the snow has paused and the temps in Scarsdale are hanging out in the low 30's. But by the end of the week, the snow will resume and the mercury is slated to drop to the low teens.

I'll give you three guesses where futures will head on Friday, and the first two don't count.

Item number two is for WaveStrength Options Weekly readers who are involved in shorting Pfizer Inc. (PFE:NYSE). Yes, Pfizer had big news today: it is going to save a bundle by firing 10,000 workers by the end of 2008.

Why does anyone think that this is good news for the pharmaceutical giant? The first 2,200 pink slips will hit its sales force.

Why is it firing salespeople? Because it has nothing new to sell: There are no drugs of any significance in Pfizer's pipeline. And once those pesky sales people are no longer asking for salaries because it is no longer selling anything, Pfizer can move on to firing chemists and janitors.

Heck, next thing you know, it will announce that it's shutting down the lunchroom and asking the CEO to drive a 2002 Taurus.

Maybe this will help it out, say in 2009. For now, this company stinks.