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Oil Played Perfectly

By

Tuesday Jan 23, 2007

by Bryan Bottarelli


As Adam and I have been discussing (and predicting) in past editorials, oil prices are set to move back up as cold winter weather has finally gripped most parts of the United States.

Now as you know, the unseasonably warm weather pushed oil prices under $50 a barrel last week (the first time since May of 2005 that prices have gotten that low). But since then, oil prices have rebounded back up to $53.37 a barrel, which gives us an indication that the upside move could be sustainable for the next 4-6 weeks.

Given this outlook, I wrote a column titled “This Week's Major Trends” where I recommended buying longer-dated call options on Chevron (CVX:NYSE).

After all, CVX stock had peaked on December 15 at $76.20 a share, but had since fallen back down to around $70.35. As a tactical position, I considered it a good idea to use the oil price weakness to enter into longer-dated call options while premiums are still cheap.

If you followed along on this opportunity, then you may have noticed my recommendation in Dynamic Market Alert which said to buy the CVX June 70 Calls (CVX FN) at or under $4.60, good for the day -- which was published when the current bid/ask spread was $4.20 to $4.40.

As I write today, these calls have traded as high as $5.50, good for a nice little 25% gainer. If you made this play and are still holding this position, then you should go ahead and take your quick profits off the table.

If you didn't make this play, then don't worry. After all, Adam and I feel it's once again time to revisit the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE:AMEX), and we're putting out this recommendation today in our WaveStrength Options Weekly service. If all goes according to plan, this new XLE play could return 102% over the next 4-6 weeks.