The Smartest Money Always Wins
By
by Andrew Mickey
What a day! We're less than 25 hours away from the next great trading opportunity, but I'll get to that in a minute. First, I want to address Wall Street's joyful reaction following an unexpected announcement from Michael Dell declaring he is going to return to Dell Computer as its CEO.
It just goes to show you what happens when you lose somebody else's money. Since Kevin Rollins took over as Dell's CEO on June 15, 2004, Dell's stock has fallen from $35.01 to close yesterday at $24.22. When you consider Michael Dell holds 216 million shares of his company's stock, that means Rollins has cost him $2.35 billion.
Michael Dell had to do something. His personal fortune was dwindling. Frankly, I think it's good to see him back at the helm. However, after a sharp rise in Dell's stock price this morning, it all came crashing back down to reality.
However, my quantitative analysis system was all over it. You see, last week an institutional investor seemed to know something was coming. While Dell's stock was declining, Level 6 Trader detected an institutional investor trying quietly to pick up 2.6 million shares of Dell. However, they did so unsuccessfully, and Level 6 traders knew something had to be up.
Then last night, when Michael Dell made his announcement, we knew why the suspicious institutional buying activity was taking place late last week. Level 6 traders took out positions in Dell that resulted in 33% gains in less than a week.
But many did even better. H.M. just sent me this note: “Andrew, I am kicking butt on Dell. Not only did I take the May 25 at 1.40 (currently 1.90 for a 33% gain in a day), I also took a chance on the Feb 25's at 0.40, which I just sold at 0.80 for a 100% gain in a day!”
Even the skeptics are starting to learn the power of following the smart money. H.H. just wrote me: “I subscribed to your service on Jan. 24, 2007 with a little apprehension, but took the plunge on Jan. 25, 2007 and bought the Dell $25.00 -- 5/07 calls at $1.40 and $1.30, sold this morning near the open at $1.95 giving me a 41% gain in 7 days and paid for the subscription in one trade.”
Now, the Level 6 Trader system is spotting some strong institutional buying in shares of Intel (INTC:NASDAQ), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD:NYSE), and Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI:NASDAQ). And that selling trend shows no signs of slowing down.
But what I'm really getting excited about is opportunity coming up tomorrow. Around 8:30 in the morning we're going to get a bit of news that has made a few investors pretty wealthy in the past. It's playing the sweeping swings in the earnings of the share price of the NYSE (NYX:NYSE). Over the past year, the stock has moved like clockwork following an earnings announcement.
The first earnings announcement ever for the NYSE was on May 17 when shares were trading for $69.5. Within a month, they fell 30.1% to $48.95. Correctly positioned traders could have reaped 667% gains in 28 days.
Three months later the fast money was at it again. The company's second earnings announcement was on August 15th when shares traded at $59. The company trounced earnings expectations by 20%, but the stock didn't even move.
However, over the next six weeks it climbed 24.7%. Again, traders with this Level 6 information could have banked 403% gains in less than six weeks.
Three month's after that on November 13, the company beat earnings estimates for the third quarter -- this time, by a mere 5%. Again, shares traded flat the next day.
But the fast money was moving in again. And over the next two weeks, the stock climbed from 93.82 to 112. That's an $18.18 dollar (or 19.4%) move in only 10 days. Level 6 Traders would have reaped 216% gains on this move.
Now, the NYSE is set to report earnings again tomorrow and I doubt this trend is going to stop. However, no one knows whether the stock will continue to go up or will fall on the earnings announcement. Either way, it's going somewhere because the fast money hedge funds and private equity firms that hold it are going to push it there.
Already, a single top-performing hedge fund with more than $12 billion under management has quietly amassed 12.4 million shares of this $101 stock.
On top of that, AXA Capital Management has picked up 12.1 million shares for itself and global private equity firm, Atlantic Capital Partners, holds more than 8 million shares for itself.
Together, those three big money movers account for more than 21% of outstanding shares. And the best part is there are no large long-term major investors from Fidelity or Franklin Templeton holding giant blocks of this stock.
At 5:00 p.m., tomorrow afternoon, a small group of investors are going to receive an e-mail that is going to tell them which way the hedge funds are going to move the stock.






