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An Old, But Still Growing, Company

By

Tuesday Feb 06, 2007

by Ann Sosnowski


Avon Products Inc. (AVP:NYSE) has survived over 120 years as a beauty products company steeped in individual passion and entrepreneurship. It's a magnificent feat, considering every grocery store, pharmacy, dollar stores, and even cosmetic-focused stores like Mac and Sephora try to outsell each other in fierce beauty contest-like competition.

Today's Avon looks very different from the Avon of 120 years ago… but its philosophy has always been categorically the same: empower women.

Funny enough, as most feminine products go, Avon was originally concocted by a man named David H. McConnell in 1886. Its infantile name was the California Perfume Company. The company's first general agent (as they were called back then, instead of Avon ladies or the more politically correct “representatives”) was Mrs. P.F. Albee. A little more than 10 years later, McConnell decided to build a laboratory and small manufacturing plant in New York to support CPC's growing size.

By the early 20th century, there were 10,000 representatives selling 117 items from California Perfume Company. By 1928 there were 25,000 representatives selling $2 million worth of beauty products, both as a result of World War I as well as the 20's era. The company moved its offices to New York that year, and manufactured its first toiletries under the Avon label.

The company received the Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval and changed its name officially to Avon Products Inc.

Hitting sales of $16 million per year, the company's shares were taken public in an over-the-counter offering in 1946.

In only two decades, Avon extended its business overseas. Already a major cosmetic presence in America and Canada, the company expanded its operations to Puerto Rico, Mexico, the United Kingdom, and Brazil (just to name a few) in the 1950s, and to France, Japan, Spain, and Italy in the 1970s. From there, of course, it was a snowball effect.

By 1997 the company topped sales of $5 billion annually with 2.6 million Avon representatives. Today, Avon makes $8 billion in revenue and is spearheaded by, of course, a woman: Andrea Jung. She has been CEO since 1999.

Jung's tenure has been anything but smooth sailing. While Avon's stock fell nearly 88% from mid-2004 to the end of 2006, Jung was accused of being apathetic to the plight of the company while having her pockets padded with $1.49 million in compensation annually.

Regardless of the CEO's criticism, I found myself being extremely bullish on the company in early 2006. While most other newsletters were touting Avon as a beast from the past, and a stock that really couldn't continue to do anything but drop in value, I recommended it both to WaveStrength Traders and Market Report readers as a free trade. Mainly, I loved the stock's technical chart.

I admit that I did start feeling a bit nostalgic, considering my mother was an Avon lady when I was growing up and since I was too old to be left alone, I used to sit on her bed and literally paint my face with lipstick as she packed bags with products that our neighbors had ordered the week before. But that really wasn't the reason I liked the stock so much.

I saw it very much like I see Taser International Inc. (TASR:NASDAQ) now: as a turnaround stock. Jung decided that she needed to step up and take control of the company, and hang all the talking heads out to dry. She instituted a formal, and need I say, controversial, turnaround plan for the company.

In July 2006, the company announced a drop of 54% in second-quarter earnings. But this was a given considering the pre-announced charges against its quarter due to restructuring (7 cents per share to be exact) that would slash 20-30% of its middle and senior management (which of course, didn't include Jung).

The biggest reason on my mind to be bullish on this company was a simple geographical piece of information: for all the revenues the company generated annually across the globe, its successive method of door-to-door sales had been halted in China for years due to the country's basic fear of pyramid schemes. Once China opened its door in 2006 to a $1 billion opportunity for Avon to finally sell its products door-to-door, Avon's expansion and promise was resecured.

And today's earnings announcement prove it.

Avon Products Inc. (AVP:NASDAQ) finally persuaded the public that its business plan is not obsolete, and that its restructuring plan isn't for naught. The cosmetic heavyweight's stock rose 8.4% today, to a high of $38.62, after announcing that fourth-quarter earnings rose 41 cents per share on top of revenue of $2.62 billion. Analysts polled only expected 38 cents per share. Jung's restructuring plan for Avon has already saved $100 million for the company, which was invested into advertising to fuel sales. The company expects to save $200 million more from the restructuring.

Forbes “Sneak Peek 2007” report offers up AVP as one of this year's winners.

But Taipan Financial News loyalists and WaveStrength subscribers will remember that they heard it out of this mouth first.

Of course, WaveStrength Trader subscribers and Market Report readers have been holding a position in Avon for a little less than a year.

With entry prices of $31.53 and $31.91 per share, respectively, you're showing gains of 19.87% and 21.31%. Sell all positions in Avon Products Inc. (AVP:NYSE) now.

Although I'm bullish on the company still, and believe its stock can return to its historic highs, this pop is a blessing for these positions. The stock looks like it will correct from here before continuing on.

Taking profits now would be the smartest thing to do, as well as reentering later on at a lower price by “buying on the dip” if you believe like me that this is a true comeback stock story.