Another Go
By
by S.R. Nunnally
Oil's made another go at $60 a barrel with a high of $59.97. If you recall, oil fell through $60 like a hot knife through butter back on January 3. It was not a good way to start off the year for the oil bulls.
In fact, after January 3, oil kept falling a further 14% over the next nine trading days before bottoming out.
But since bottoming out, oil has climbed more than 17.5% in 15 days, and the past two days have seen prices scraping the $60 mark.
This point could prove to be a bit difficult to get past.
From October through the end of December -- just before that massive 14% drop -- oil prices traded fairly range-bound between $60.64-66.29.
This tug-of-war was the sparring of cyclical tendencies and unseasonable weather.
When January 2007 came around, oil was exhausted and the weather was still above normal. Prices dropped.
That range-bound trading followed by the swift fall has created a ceiling that could provide some resistance to higher oil prices. I wouldn't be surprised to see a slight dip in price over the remainder of the week.
However, I would be very surprised to see oil fall past $55 a barrel. In fact, I think oil will continue to rise -- after the chance of a slight dip to $57.50 - to $65 over the next four weeks.
During the slight correction/consolidation, expect oil stocks to go bipolar again. We're still seeing some slight volatility from the slew of earnings that have come 'round the bend.
These “higher” oil prices have eased the damages, and I think a slight pause in the rise to $65 won't do oil stocks much harm in the long run.
That's all for today.






