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"Soft Oil" Positioning

By

Tuesday Feb 13, 2007

by Bryan Bottarelli


Tomorrow Mr. Bernanke will testify before the Senate Banking Committee -- and on Thursday he'll appear before the House Financial Services panel.

Although Adam's typically the guy who covers the Fed, I thought I'd weigh in and give you my thoughts on the eve of Federal Reserve Chief Ben Bernanke's first foray into the new Democratic majority.

And to be perfectly honest, I don't expect too many fireworks.

Sure, the hearing will certainly be awkward, but Bernanke has proven early in his career that he'll offer the latest economic research on certain topics -- but he'll decline to give his personal views on the correct policy choice. As a result, Wall Street is unable to read into his comments (or decode them, as we used to do back in the Greenspan era), which results in remarkably calm intraday moves during policy hearings.

Sure, you could detect a slight market reaction or two, but I don't foresee anything that'll cause a major market rift. So in the meantime, let's discuss the WaveStrength Options Weekly play that Adam and I are set to issue…

As you know, oil prices have experienced weakness during the first two months of the 2007 calendar year, which is probably why WaveStrength charting has identified a new upside opportunity in one of the market's top oil names.

From a tactical point of view, I'll be using the current “soft” oil prices to establish a longer-dated upside call option as our latest WOW play. Based on my preliminary calculations, all we need is a $3 rise in this oil stock to lock in a 43% gainer. And if we get a follow-on move, we could see profits as high as 139%.

If you're a WOW reader, keep an eye out for your latest play, coming to you after the close of trading today.