I've been talking about oil all week, and today will be no different.

I'm pleased to announce that my support point for oil prices ($57.50) has proved accurate so far, but I'm a bit concerned about these “falling tops” we've seen over the past three or four days.

Since Nigeria cut its output on February 9, and oil topped $60 a barrel, we've seen a decreasing willingness to test the $60 mark -- until today. Let me show you:

Oil Price Highs:

February 9: $60.80

February 12: $59.76

February 13: $59.60

February 14: $59.26

February 15: $58.51

But today, we're seeing highs back above $59.

You'll be receiving a video alert today where I give a general market review. I talked about oil prices, too. I said, “Oil prices need to breach the $60 mark and stay above it in order for bullish sentiment to continue, otherwise, resistance could push oil back down. Should oil price stay above $60, it's an easy climb to $65. But if oil prices can't force their way above $60, then there's a potential to fall back to $50 a barrel.”

A few weeks ago, I spoke about a possible head and shoulders pattern forming in the oil chart. From a technical aspect, this pattern should force oil to climb to $65 before falling again, but that's not completely necessary.

Remember, this pattern resembles three mountains with the middle peak higher than the two outer peaks. The valleys between the peaks represent the breakout point. That point is around $55.

Because oil has risen so valiantly this past month (15% if you're counting), it's due for a slight correction. That's what's happening now at the $57.50 level.

But if this correction happens to dip to the $55 level or beyond, then the head and shoulders formation would be complete, and a possible 23% decline would be on the horizon.

In other words, oil's downside target is $47.75.

A return to milder weather could precipitate this drop, and as we shuffle towards spring (and it could come early, according to Punxsutawney Phil) it will become harder for oil prices to climb.

As it stands, I think we've got a few more upside dollars before this bearish formation fills out. But be wary of the $55 breakout point.