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Your Faithful Editor Gets Lucky

By

Friday Feb 16, 2007

by Bryan Bottarelli


“I took my wife out for a Valentines Day dinner -- to Chipotle of all places -- and she loved it!”

When I mentored for one of the top traders on the CBOE, he had one quote that he used to repeat almost on a weekly basis:

“I'd rather be lucky than good.”

As it turned out, he was both lucky and good -- making him one of the best traders I've ever seen. And luckily for me, I had the pleasure of working shoulder to shoulder with him for a year. And this past week, his favorite quote came into play… big time.

You see, my wife and I typically go out to dinner the day after Valentine's Day, just to avoid the dinner rush and jacked-up wine prices. So as it turned out, we were out with our 2-year-old daughter running errands this past Wednesday and decided to stop at Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG:NYSE) for dinner. After all, it was Valentine's Day -- who would be at Chipotle? Man, were we in for a shock… because the place was jam-packed. The line, for example, was out the door. The place was doing amazing business -- especially on what was supposed to be an off night. I was shocked.

Now I've always known that Chipotle was a great stock -- but perhaps I underestimated how good it really was. Up 40% from its IPO in March of 2006, it has been on a great run -- but is there even more upside to come? After all, burritos are quickly becoming the new hamburgers and pizza in America. Similar to how salsa has far surpassed ketchup as the top-selling condiment in America, Chipotle stands perfectly positioned to capitalize on the extension of that trend -- in the form of its increasingly popular Mexican restaurants. By serving non-fried foods, people like me feel good about eating there because of the perceived health benefit (never mind the high salt and carb content -- at least it's not fried and it's not pizza!). And with the addition of alcohol sales and add-ons like $2 for guacamole, it looks like CMG is using its more upscale appearance to stretch the per-visit cost of its meals compared to every other fast-food restaurant. Heck, it even charts for its tortilla chips! Talk about squeezing out every dollar you can.

Chart-wise, the stock just experienced a double-top formation at the $62 level, but it's now attempting to breach those levels once again. And if it does, I'd think that the next stop would be north of $70 per share.

But best of all, my wife and daughter were pleased with the meal. “I must admit, I'm surprised,” my wife said. “This was a rather enjoyable experience.”

On the drive home, I couldn't help but think to myself and smile. “I took my wife out for a Valentine's dinner -- to Chipotle of all places -- and she loved it!”

Yes indeed, I'd rather be lucky than good…