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Oil Stocks: Gasoline Prices Are Powering the Next Phase of Chevron (CVX:NYSE) Growth

By Adam Lass and Bryan Bottarelli

Thursday Feb 22, 2007


Just as heating oil has its most important price growth in late fall and early winter, gasoline prices tend to rise from March to August. Fortunately, our current energy sector proxy, Chevron (CVX:NYSE) benefits from both cycles.

Last year, when gasoline spiked 50%, CVX rode that horse for 19% gains. It then went on to gain another 12% during the heating fuel cycle.

Right now, CVX's price reflects the trough between cycles, a rare chance to get in before the next ramp up. Should price accelerate this year as it did last year, it's quite possible for an investor to make anywhere from a simple 20% via stock shares to as much as 10 times that via careful deployment of CVX call options.

Oil Stocks: Chevron - Click to view larger image.

Oil Stocks: What We See in Chevron

In yesterday's Market Report, we discussed oil prices -- and specifically we applied our bullish thesis to the current trading patterns of Chevron (CVX:NYSE).

To reiterate our overall thesis, we feel strongly about having upside exposure in the oil sector -- especially anytime crude prices are under $60 a barrel. Now that the North American cold snap is coming to an end, you're going to start hearing more and more about the summer driving season -- and the effects it'll have on oil prices

Putting the rubber to the road, we isolated an opportunity in CVX. You see, the oil giant had actually broken below its 50-day moving average while all the other major oil plays (XOM, MRO, ext) were finding support at these levels.

At the same time, the entire oil patch sector had been drifting lower despite the major market averages setting new 52-week highs. In our eyes, this represented a tremendous opportunity to add longer-dated call options on Chevron, which is exactly what I did yesterday.

Low and behold, a quick look at the CVX charts shows that the stock is up putting in a strong green candlestick formation today -- which indicates that our analysis was right on the money.

In one day, the call options that we recommended in WOW are showing a nice 38% gainer. If CVX moves back up to $74, as we predict, the gains could be much, much higher. So continue to hold for more gains.

But for any more information on how you should play this, you need to be a WOW member!