Macro Outlook

Are we already in a recession? The Commerce Department has downgraded gross domestic product growth for late summer from an already tepid “2.2%” to a downright frigid “2%.” 

Why the quotes? Because this 2% figure that all the papers have picked up has been annualized (a favorite “spin” trick). We didn't grow 2% in the third quarter. Rather, we grew 0.5%, a growth rate so small as to be within the margin of error for many reports of this nature. 

In fact, one more downgrade, and even Washington would have to concede that growth is flat - at best! 

More tonight…

Market Trends

According to Newsweek, Iraq's economy is booming… 

Iraqna, the company's largest cell phone company is on track to make revenues of $520 million. The number of cell phones in Iraq has grown 407% since two years ago. 

Of course, construction is a booming industry. I don't have to go into why.

Oil revenues and foreign grants for Iraq look to total about $41 billion for 2006. 

And although the country's GDP is on schedule to grow about 13% for the year… unemployment at its high was 50%, and at its low around 30%. 

Material Profits

What's the difference between OII and IO? We'll explore tonight in Market Report... 

Oceaneering International (OII:NYSE) and Input/Output (IO:NYSE) are in the oil services industry but in very different areas. Both, however, are very necessary for oil and gas exploration and production companies. 

I've been talking about the difference between oil services and oil producers. 

Which is better for your portfolio? I'll do a comparison tonight...

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