Macro Outlook
Whenever the markets are rising like this, the wags like to say that it is climbing “The Wall of Worry.” However, there are two sides to that concept: The first is the obvious: can buyers continue to turn a blind eye to the obstacles and threats that abound?

The second is less obvious but perhaps more important: The mere fact that markets have risen this high creates inherent risk.

In the past 10 years, the Dow has fallen 15 times an average of 15.01% over an average of 2.53 months. This is not a random event, nor is it linked to bull or bear markets. Rather, it is a virtually guaranteed cyclic event, and one that is overdue to boot.

Here's where increased Dow prices equals increased risk: the actual cash value of the next 15% drop increases with each new market high. Currently, this would equate to a fall to Dow 10,341.

More tonight…

Trading Tactics
I'd like to follow up on what Adam hinted at in yesterday's Market Report - only I'd like to reference today's economic numbers.

At the open of trading, the major market averages drifted lower on the news that U.S. economic growth was much slower than expected in Q3.

According to recent figures, gross domestic product grew at a 1.6% annual rate during the third quarter, which is way down from the 2.6% growth we witnessed in Q2.

There's no “fudging” the fine print on this one - this is not a good number.

Storm Warning time?

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